Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Easter Conference Playoff Preveiw

Brantford Bobcats (1) vs Walkerton Aces (8)

During the previous off-season the Bobcats seemed to go deal for deal with the Western powerhouses, the Flames and Pain, as those teams loaded up their rosters, meaning that 'Cats Glenn Merkir thinks his team belongs among the elite of the league. To be sure, they put in a solid season and remained consistently (something to marvel at in the TFHL) at the top of the East. The Aces managed to slip into the playoffs by a hair after lounging in the league basement for all but the final 20 games - in fact, they still reside in the dark depths of the TFHL with a .423 win percentage, it's just the bar for the East ended up being rather low.

An interesting side note to this series: the Cats and Aces were parties in a significant deal about halfway through the season, a deal which turned out to be decidedly in the Aces favour and likely the reason for their marking the post-season.

In net the Bobcats have a clear edge with one of the few consistently good goalies in the league, Mathieu Biron, but Thomas Vokoun also has been a respectable playoff performer. The Aces are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, whereas the Bobcats do a passable job. Sergei Gonchar rediscovered his mojo somewhere along the 403 after a poor season with the Saints, whereas the Aces' best defenseman is a former Bobcat, Nick Shultz. As for offence, there's not a lot of difference there. Each team has their elite performers (Bertuzzi and Demitra to Samsonov), their disappointments (Gaborik to Gagne), and their supporting cast types.

Verdict: The Bobcats should be able to knock-off the Aces in five or six thanks to Biron.


Guelph Spirit (2) vs Indianapolis Ignite (7)

The Spirit managed to saunter to the top of the conference just as the Ignite fell down from those lofty heights. Thirty games ago these two could have met in a series, but with home-ice advantage switched. The Spirit boast one of the deeper squads in the league on both defence and offence. Meanwhile, although the Ignite can ice a respectable pair of scoring lines anchored by the best player in this series, Jarome Iginla, their defence may be hard pressed against the Spirit's four line assault. In goal the squads have a pair of very similar net minders in Tommy Salo and M-A Fleury.

Verdict: This series will ultimately be decided by the capricious fate of the net. Which goalie will be hot? Or perhaps more likely, which goalie will just not get his act together fast enough? A slow start and a couple poor showings by either Fleury or Salo, and their team will meet an ill doom. Safe money is on Spirit in six, but an Ignite upset in seven is not unforeseeable.


Saskatoon Saints (3) vs Calgary Hurricanes (5)

The two long time rivals will face each other again after a year respite in what used to be a staple of the TFHL off-season. In the olden days, when the Hurricanes were in their heyday, the Saints were able to upset, or at least threaten an upset. Now the roles are somewhat reversed.

At the beginning of the year after an off-season of manoeuvres and mega-deals, it looked like the Saints were going to ice an offensive juggernaught; by game 20 the Saints were exactly the same team they have been for five seasons - offensively above average and defensively horrible, with some unlucky bastard in net. Although rookie Marc Cheverie somewhat stabilized the latter position, the Saints must be wondering if their fate will again be the same as all those same ol' squads. The 'Canes on the other hand made it to the championship final last season and came within a goal of winning it all. They subsequently dealt Markus Naslund - the player who almost single-handedly got them to the finals - but are still substantially the same team that won the East last year.

Verdict: It's way too easy to expect an upset here, so easy in fact that I'm going to do it the hard way and say that the Saints take the series in six.


Young Guns (4) vs Marauders (5)

The Marauders, like the Ignite, had a bit of a fall from grace, whereas the Young Guns after a dismal first half have been smoking hot to climb into a home ice position. Despite their ample stable of cowboys, the Young Guns are the most impotent if any playoff squad with only 226 goals for. That stat alone tells you that Jose Theodore is running a one man show here. The Marauders likewise owe a lot of their credit for their respectable season to their goalie, Martin Brodeur. The Marauders got better than expected performances from many players, and it would be remarkable if they continue in the playoffs. However, they do have a wildcard in Markus Naslund, who put in a Conn Smythe worthy performance last season.

Verdict: The Young Guns made it to the Conference final last season on the strength of Jose Theodore's goaltending, and it is not in the least inconceivable that they will do better than that this year. Young Guns in five.

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